How much do you value the extra games, the games not yet played, that guys on those last few teams still have in front of them?
In other words, taking an otherwise neutral trade (i.e., MG What's going on?
If you assume his usual level is closer to 2007/2008/2010 than 2006/2009 and don't overpay, then maybe it works, but you have to seriously consider the risk factor that it doesn't. I assume the bat would play, but once we deduct the necessary points for defense and historically bad baserunning, would there be enough left? He's gotta keep hitting for a couple of years, still.
That's the kind of writing I miss the most and I'm waiting for one of the current bp authors to take over this role. (tcayou from AZ)Well, as I tried to show in today's piece on Mauer, it does make a certain sense to do exactly that, because the value of a win on the open market will reliably continue to rise, such that a player in the decline phase of his career will have to do less to justify his deal X years down the road than today.
That said, there are plenty of times where a backloaded deal makes sense.
if there's a closer out there, get him; in an 8-team league you shouldn't be speculating on future saves but getting saves here and now. Can you give me some advice about the value of good catchers and any tips for 2013? I don't think there is an ideal strategy for drafting catchers.
The free agents you list don't look particularly great which - again - makes me wonder how deep your reserve lists are. In a yahoo league rotisserie standard 8 team league. Need to add another pitcher and solid bar to this line up. Who should we ditch and is there anyone we should be tracking or picking up? I've read many pundits say avoid paying top dollar, but I've had success doing so.
(Mike Gianella) is playing 3B (which conceivably he might not be). In a yahoo league rotisserie standard 8 team league. Generally speaking, your offense looks strong, although in a shallow league under performing players like Weeks should probably be shown the door.
I tend to think that Pujols is going to have a very strong recovery now that his foot is unhurt, but he'll either be much better than Mauer or much worse. On the pitching side, I think that Lincecum is a weak play for an eight-team mixed format. Players should try to figure out a way to keep their salaries secret. Click here for a free card so you can see what's missing. He's hitting EVERYTHING on the ground, that sounds like a mechanical issue. Has he become a guy who can't catch up with heat anymore? I don't get to see him very often anymore, but I do know the bat speed isn't what it was, and pitchers do not fear pitching him inside at all. A lot of dynasty leagues are deeper so you can't move on entirely, but it is time to downgrade valuation/expectations for both, particularly Mauer now that he won't have catcher eligibility going forward. (Ryan Parker)Given that the Mariners made a qualifying offer, the most likely destination for Kendry Morales is back to Seattle, since I can't see a team like the Pirates or the Rays surrendering a first round pick for a talent like Morales.Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web. Click here for a free card so you can see what's missing. K rate, walk rate, plate discipline all seem OK Mauer. Ridiculously high contact rate, ridiculously low K rate and (for him) a really low walk rate. (Mike Gianella)Mauer did have an 8 but injuries and age took it all the way down to a 6 at worst. Dude will find his swing and continue to mash Current 7's- Altuve, Miggy, Cano, Trout and VMart... The 10 teams that have protected picks either don't seem to need a first baseman or haven't expressed a lot of interest in Morales. Addison Reed RP Jason Grilli RP Tim Lincecum SP Brett Anderson DL Dan Haren SP Kenley Jansen RP Lance Lynn FA available.There are certainly pitchers who are better or worse at holding runners on to begin with, and I think one of the woefully unexamined areas of baseball study is trying to untangle that interaction, rather than attributing the whole of it to the catcher. Mauer is the better hitter even if he never approaches his 2009 level - he's got 43 points of career True Average on Wieters (.305 to .260), but he's also three years older and already starting to break down physically.Meanwhile, Wieters has developed into a solid player but hardly the star many (BP as well as prospect mavens elsewhere) predicted he would be.I don't think either would get a bank-breaking Yadier-esque deal if they were suddenly free agents.